2014 holiday season tough to follow for Xbox One and PS4, says analyst

As we approach the beginning of the gaming holiday season, research firm NPD Group, who provide us with monthly video game sales stats for the United States, shared their expectations for video game sales during the 2015 holiday season.

With the fourth quarter of the calendar year representing just over 40 percent of the year's sales in video games, NPD Group's Liam Callahan expects "positive" results for the gaming industry, although he acknowledged both the Xbox One and PlayStation 4 have tough acts to follow from last year.

"For Xbox One, this holiday will have hard comps to last year as we saw strong sales based on the attractive Assassin’s Creed Unity bundle and the lower $350 promotional price," Callahan wrote. "However, with the launch of Halo 5, Xbox One has a ‘system seller,’ and ‘killer app’ that could see many 360 holdouts upgrading to the Xbox One."

Callahan also noted the PlayStation 4 has tough comps due to "their success last holiday." What'll help this year, he wrote, is the recently announced $50 price drop. Although he acknowledged that the PS4 doesn't have "as compelling a story with their first-party lineup," he added they've got "two of the best third-party bundles," referring to the "presumed software hits of Call of Duty: Black Ops 3 and Star Wars: Battlefront."

Hardware sales are actually down 6 percent year-to-date through August data, but that's mostly due to the decline of last-gen console sales. Unfortunately, the decline in last-gen system sales are so steep that they are not being offset by 8th generation consoles despite a 66 percent increase in sales.

But with attractive bundles and a strong holiday lineup of software that includes such games as Star Wars: Battlefront, Halo 5, and Fallout 4, Callahan and the NPD Group expect Q4'15 "to be a 'gift' for the video game industry."

[NPD Group]