Nintendo is launching the Switch on March 3rd and so far all pre-orders have sold out for initial stock. A new report from research firm DFC has noted that this demand will continue to rise over the next several years.
According to the report, the Switch will sell 40 million units by the year 2020. This means the console will need to hit just over 13 million units a year for 3 years, which is just under the Wii U's lifetime sales of 14 million units. The DFC notes that "demand is expected to be strong and the major issue will be whether the system can attract a broad audience starting in the holiday sales season of 2017."
DFC Intelligence head David Cole commented,
The Switch is a compelling piece of hardware that could potentially reach a much larger addressable market. However given the limited software and Nintendo's poor recent track record of introducing new products we have tempered our forecasts to be conservative.
Now, I understand that many will laugh hearing that they believe Nintendo selling 40 million Switch consoles in three years is 'conservative', but there is logic to this. As we point out in our opinion piece on the Switch, the Wii U's main issue was marketing. Many believed the Wii U was simply an add-on for the original Wii, resulting in them not buying it. The Switch clearly doesn't have that problem as the fan excitement is through the roof.
With just an average lineup of launch titles so far, this number will need a strong third party showing and holiday lineup later in the year in order to be met. By no means would I bet that this will happen, but I also wouldn't be surprised if it did. Gamers are fickle creatures when it comes to past practice of companies, so we'll have to wait and see if Nintendo can "switch" up their reputation.
Do you think the Switch can hit 40 million in time? Let us know
