If Xbox One can’t outsell PS4 this holiday season, it probably never will

It’s fair to say that this generation is off to a fairly slow start in terms of actual “next-gen” game releases. Sure, we’ve had a few notable ones — Titanfall, inFamous: Second Son — but the majority of games have been cross-gen and remakes. I’m not complaining, just pointing out that during a time in which both consoles are about as even as it’ll get in terms of game lineups, the PS4 is outselling the Xbox One by quite a large margin.

Heck, even with the Xbox One price cut — as a result of dropping the Kinect — and the monthly updates that have, in my opinion, made it an all-around better entertainment machine (read: not specific for gaming), it couldn’t outsell the PS4.

Now the Xbox One and PS4 lifecycle will span for years. I’m not usually one of those guys that fawn over year-one sales. It’s a marathon, not a sprint, they say. But for Microsoft, I strongly believe that this fall will mark the one time it has a clear advantage over Sony. And if the Xbox One can’t outsell the PS4 this holiday season, it likely never will.

If this generation is all about games, games, games, well, then one has to be impressed with what Microsoft is offering this fall. Starting in September, Microsoft has the following games coming to Xbox exclusively: Forza Horizon 2, Fantasia: Music Evolved, Sunset Overdrive, Shape Up, and Halo: The Master Chief Collection. Comparatively, Sony’s PS4 lineup for the fall is looking pretty lackluster. Save for any last minute Gamescom announcements, the only “major” releases coming exclusively to PS4 are Driveclub and LittleBigPlanet 3 (which will also be available on PS3).

There’s no denying Microsoft will have the stronger lineup in the fall, though Sony’s will undoubtedly pick-up in early 2015 starting with The Order: 1886 and Bloodborne.

But my point is, this is likely the only time we’ll have such a disparity in exclusives. And Microsoft is throwing the big guns out there. Sunset Overdrive is a new IP, but it’s got some excitement behind it. Forza is the racing franchise for Xbox.Sure. And sure, The Master Chief Collection isn’t Halo 5 like we were all hoping for, but it’s every major Halo game ever released — plus some — all in one bundle. If Halo — Microsoft’s flagship exclusive franchise — can’t convince consumers to go out and buy an Xbox One in droves, then nothing will. Save for a new Gears of War, I don’t think a fall lineup can get any better for the Xbox One.