Microsoft has made it clear that they believe Kinect to be the shot in the arm the Xbox 360 needs to remain relevant for another half-decade. Market research firm DFC Intelligence disagrees, and believes that the Xbox’s best days are behind it, and Microsoft has hitched its gaming wagon to an old and dying horse.
“Based on what we have seen, DFC continues to feel that Microsoft is going to struggle to expand beyond its core audience,” said the company in a briefing.
“With Kinect, Microsoft is trying to follow after what has worked for other companies. There are numerous problems with this approach, but the biggest problem is Microsoft, at its core, is simply not an entertainment company.
“Almost every time Microsoft has tried to emulate successful entertainment products they have failed,” they added. “With MSN and casual games Microsoft was able to attract a fairly large and diverse audience, but these products were free. We don’t know the price of the Kinect, but it is definitely not free.”
The report concluded by stating “At the end of the day, we see Kinect has having some appeal to a well-heeled fitness audience. In terms of changing the overall video game hardware platform market share we see it having a negligible impact.”
So first off, ouch; what a harsh blast on a new technology that hasn’t even been released yet. Can we at least let Kinect see the light of day before we bury it?
Looking beyond that there’s a real question as to if the claims of DFC actually have merit. The analysts are operating under the assumption that 3D, and not controller-free gaming is the next big leap in technology, and if that holds true then they are absolutely dead on. While Microsoft has claimed that the Xbox 360 is capable of 3D gaming, they’re also taking a wait and see approach with the tech, allowing Sony to test the waters and see what consumer response will be like. Thus, if 3D truly does catch on then Sony will have a massive advantage.
But what if 3D isn’t gaming’s hot new trend? After all, very few people own 3D TVs, and those who have actually played 3D games have mixed reactions, so it’s not as if 3D Bravia’s are flying off the shelves and gamers are breathing down Sony’s neck for Killzone 3D. If 3D remains a niche tech then couldn’t it be possible that Microsoft is actually in the best position moving forward with their hands-free controller that’s ready to appeal to gamers of all stripes?
It’s going to take a while to truly judge the validity of Kinect as a gaming device, but we get the feeling that when it’s all said and done Microsoft’s latest creation will be significantly more important to the gaming landscape the DFC may expect.
